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Richard Portes

Richard Portes is Professor of Economics at London Business School (since 1995);President of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (which he founded in 1983);and Directeur d'Etudes at the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales inParis (since 1978). He was a Rhodes Scholar and a Fellow of Balliol College,Oxford, and has also taught at Princeton, Harvard (as a Guggenheim Fellow), andBirkbeck College (University of London). In 1999-2000, he was the DistinguishedGlobal Visiting Professor at the Haas Business School, University of California,Berkeley, and in 2003-04 he was Joel Stern Visiting Professor of InternationalFinance at Columbia Business School.

Professor Portes has been elected a Fellow of the Econometric Society, a Fellow ofthe British Academy, and a Fellow of the European Economic Association. He wasSecretary-General of the Royal Economic Society, 1992-2008. He is Co-Chairmanof the Board of Economic Policy. He is a member of the Group of Economic PolicyAdvisors for the President of the European Commission; of the Steering Committeeof the Euro-50 Group; of the Bellagio Group on the International Economy; andChair of the Collegio di Probiviri (Wise Men Committee) of MTS. He has writtenextensively on the international financial crisis, globalisation, sovereign debt,European monetary and financial issues, international capital flows, internationalcurrencies, centrally planned economies and transition, macroeconomicdisequilibrium, and European integration. Most recently, he published (with coauthors)Macroeconomic Stability and Financial Regulation (CEPR, 2009).

Richard Portes was decorated Commander of the British Empire (CBE) in theQueen's New Year Honours List 2003.

Abstract:

The world monetary system: the declining role of the dollar

The dollar's exchange rate is depreciating. More important, the proportion of newly created foreign exchange reserves going into dollars appears to be falling, while the share of the euro is rising. A significant portfolio shift by central banks and private dollar holders into euros and the consequent euro appreciation could be highly disruptive in the short run, although it would promote global rebalancing. For the long run, the euro will take on the same status as the dollar as an international currency, in both government and private market use. This need not be destabilising, but the transition will have to be managed carefully. As for other currencies, none – including the renminbi – will rise to the same status within the next two to three decades.

 

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